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Asia's Cauldron: The South China Sea and the End of a Stable Pacific
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Audible Audiobook
Listening Length: 8 hours and 22 minutes
Program Type: Audiobook
Version: Unabridged
Publisher: Tantor Audio
Audible.com Release Date: March 25, 2014
Whispersync for Voice: Ready
Language: English, English
ASIN: B00IZMWQ2A
Amazon Best Sellers Rank:
I just read this book for the second time, and Kaplan's subtle insights into national backgrounds of countries and statelets around the South China Sea sink in even more."We" project many erroneous motivations onto nations because we know little about their national backgrounds. Kaplan takes a chapter-by-chapter analysis of the political history of each country to give sometimes completely new outlooks on the past of each of these nations, from past colonizations by Europeans, historical dominance by China, or the influences of overseas Chinese in their trade patterns, going back a thousand years.He also contrasts cultural differences that have mattered today and in the past. He delves into the laid-back culture of the Malays and their almost contemptuous attitude to Time and getting things done, is contrasted with the driven attitudes of overseas Chinese and the Vietnamese, and the resultant dominance through history.He illustrates how the influence of Confucian values of family-over-individual made for clan success and wealth-building in those nations where these values had influence, and how non-Confucian values in the Philippines made the parallel clans hotbeds of corruption.Advocates of western liberalism will be taken aback by his analysis of how Malaysian and Singaporean autocrats created peace, order, and financial success not by spreading democracy, but by limiting it, and walks the reader step by step through the trial-and-error insights gained by Mahathir and "Harry" Lee as they guided the modern states of Malaysia and Singapore to wide citizen acceptance despite a lack of democracy.Kaplan contrasts the present economic and military differences that resulted from past interactions by the region with China. He explains why China today avoids confrontation with Vietnam, laughs at the Philippines, and cultivates/manipulates the connections to Chinese heritage of the overseas Chinese in each of these countries. He goes into endless detail of the impact of the "cow tongue" demarcation line off its southern coast, why China made 'peace' with the Vietnamese over its sea borders with them while going on challenging claims of other nations, and how and why China is spending the next hundred years patiently expanding its control in the Taiwan Straits and out to the "near islands", and building naval power to expand into and beyond the Ryukyus, Korean Sea, Yellow Sea...and on to the Pacific.The only critique I have is it was written in 2014, as economic doubts about continued Chinese growth were arising in the news, prompting Kaplan to suggest several times that Chinese military expansion may not be financially sustainable. This has since proved not to be true.
Robert Kaplan describes the South China Sea as being “as central to Asia as the Mediterranean is to Europe.†He discusses the impact of a powerful China on the countries bordering the Sea. China believes that almost the entire Sea belongs to them, and they have plenty of old maps to support their claim. China is on the rise and it is starting to throw its weight around. China has indicated that it would like the US military to pull-out of Asia and it seems to have aspirations to become a regional hegemon. China's behavior has triggered a regional arms race and Kaplan is predicting that South East Asia will become less stable. Kaplan does not believe that a war between China and the United States is inevitable, it depends on how the US responds. He wants the US to accept a smaller role in the region and suggests that America may have to rethink its Asian strategy.Kaplan does a good job explaining the issues. Firstly, the South China Sea is an important waterway. More than half of the world’s annual merchant fleet tonnage passes through the region. Secondly, it contains a lot of oil and China is desperate for new energy. Chinese oil reserves account for only 1.1% of the world total, while it consumes over 10% of world oil production. China believes the South China Sea contains more oil than any area of the globe except Saudi Arabia. Some Chinese observers have called the South China Sea “the second Persian Gulf.†Thirdly, China is seeking an Asian version of the Monroe Doctrine, and believes in “Asia for the Asians.†Fourthly, the future of the region depends on whether the US is willing to pull-back and allow China to expand its power and influence.Kaplan believes the South China Sea is to China what the Greater Caribbean was to the United States in the 19th and early 20th centuries. He argues that the United States became a great power, geopolitically, by dominating the Caribbean. He claims that the Europeans departed the Caribbean allowing the US to dominate it. He suggests that the US should consider reciprocating in the South China Sea. “American officials…must be prepared to allow, in some measure, for a rising Chinese navy to assume its rightful position, as the representative of the region’s largest indigenous power.â€Kaplan has this back-to-front. The US did not chase Britain out of the Caribbean. Britain had several sugar colonies in the region and possessed the world’s largest navy. It maintained several naval bases and in 1895 it could deploy forty-four battleships to America’s two. Its ships went where they wanted, like the US today. America still thought of Britain as its major geopolitical rival at Bretton Woods in 1944. Like Britain in the Caribbean, the US has no intention of pulling out of the South China Sea.The US has maintained a military edge over its rivals since WW2 because of its superior technology. Most "experts" in the media advise us that for the foreseeable future, China’s military is no match for America’s. The US Navy still relies on 11 very expensive, but increasingly vulnerable aircraft carriers to police the oceans. However, China has been developing capabilities specifically designed to counter America’s power in the Pacific. The Economist reports that for over two decades China has been investing in submarines, air defense systems, ballistic missiles, and advanced cyber capabilities. The aim is to make it too dangerous for America’s carriers to operate close to China. The Economist suggests that the US may find it difficult to win a war in the South China Sea. After all, the US fought China during the Korean War and the result was a draw.The US has been the hegemonic power in Asia since WW2, but it now has a rival. America assumes the right to send its ships close to the Chinese mainland, and China views this as intimidation. Kaplan believes that the US is in relative decline, while China’s military power will continue to grow. He concludes that America will either have to change the way it operates in the South China Sea, or risk war.The US does not have many good options. Many of the states in the region depend on the United States for diplomatic and military support. It will be difficult to run away, as Ian Bremmer has advocated. Kaplan is hopeful that China will become a benign regional hegemon and won’t pose a threat to its neighbors. Kaplan is optimistic about China, he claims that China “however truculent, is no Imperial Japan.â€
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